February 26, 12 PM Weather Forecast Update

Lows this morning ran 17-25 with frost & freezing fog.

It was of greatest extent in north half.  For example, visibility dropped to 0.15 mile at the Logansport-Cass County Airport, 0.50 mile at the Monticello-White County Airport, though Kokomo did drop to 1.25 mile.

As of 12 p.m., temperatures are 35-44 over the area from north to south.

Highs today should reach 43-52 north to southwest.

It will turn cloudy late today with showers by late evening & through tonight.  They will taper early Saturday morning with some fog.

South-southeast to south winds will become southwest with time at 15-30 mph, then 5-15 mph.

Lows tonight will run 36-44 with 0.05-0.25″ rainfall expected.

As for Saturday, some clearing is possible for a while, especially in the south.  Highs of 50-61 are expected north to southwest.  I am forecasting 59 for Greater Lafayette.

More showers are likely Saturday night-Sunday morning with some fog & a southwest wind.

Lows will only run 43-52.

Rainfall amounts of 0.01-0.15″ are expected.

Up to 2.50″ of rainfall may occur in some areas of the southern part of Indiana as heavy t’storms move over that area.

Some clearing is expected Sunday afternoon with wind turning to the west & southwest.

It should go northwest to north by evening.

So, highs of 48-61 (coolest northwest, warmest south) are expected.  I continue with 59 for Greater Lafayette.  However, temperatures will start to fall in the afternoon from 59 around 2 p.m. to 51 by 5 p.m. & 44 by 7 p.m.

Lows of 25-32 are expected by early Monday morning (29 Greater Lafayette).

It appears that all rainfall will be well south of us Monday.  Just looks like a light northeast wind with partly cloudy skies & highs 40-50 north to southwest (47 Greater Lafayette).

Note the shot of near/record cold in the Northeast Monday night-Tuesday morning.

-20 is possible in New England with single digits to West Virginia & over Pennsylvania.

We should avoid all of that as the last gasps of the SSWE hang on with one last shot of really cold air.

We cloud up again Tuesday after morning lows in the 20s.

Some showers are possible by evening & Tuesday night.  Highs of 42-50 are expected with southeast wind.

Lows Tuesday night of 35-41 are likely with a southeast wind.

Rainfall of 0.05-0.30″ is currently expected.

Rainfall is possible Thursday night-Friday.

Wednesday-Thursday look dry, however, with sunshine. 

Highs of 52-61 are expected Wednesday (58 Greater Lafayette).

Highs of 57-65 are expected Thursday (62 Greater Lafayette).

Friday will be cooler at 53-58 with strong east to southeast wind & the rainfall.

Looks like some severe weather risk & some 70s may occur over parts of southern Indiana to Kentucky.

Showers/storms are possible here around March 10-11 with warmth, then a cool-down with some frost & freezing, followed by warmer weather with showers/storms around March 16-18.

Pattern supports these warm episodes with severe risk getting ever closer in mid-March.

CIPS analog supports the warmth here & the cold in the west & us being in an active storm track:

CIPS analog data also supports increasing severe risk in the Plains, gradually moving eastward.

Note how Kansas to Missouri & Arkansas begin to light up with 10 severe reports or more probability in the analog data in similar set-ups in the historical past.

Note the higher probability of above normal rainfall in mid-March in that active storm track propped up by the warm, dry Southeast subtropical ridge.

The Plains ramp up with severe weather potentially March 22-25 period with some of that making it as far east as our area with some severe risk & warm weather with 70 to 70s expected.

It also looks warm, wet & active here in the March 29-April 1 time period with severe risk in the Mississippi Valley moving as far northeast as our area.

The worst of the severe weather risk is west & southwest & south of our area in these episodes, but we look to get some.

OVERALL, everything blended together, March-April dominant pattern is warmer than normal Plains & East, colder than normal West & perhaps Northern Plains (I am not as confident that North Dakota, Montana & northern Minnesota to Manitobe will be as warm as this data projects).

You can see evidence of the dry-line punching far east & northeast as the severe drought expands from the Southwest to Oklahoma & western Kansas.

This will serve as a focal point for frequent severe weather.

Subtropical ridge should pump a frequent steady flow of warm, humid, unstable air from Louisiana to Indiana & Ohio as it anchors off the coast of the Carolinas.

Above normal rainfall is the name of the game from Arkansas & Missouri, through our area to Ohio March-April.

Our wettest times are currently centered on late March-early April & late April.

This will be an active storm track with frequent bouts of storms.

The last time we saw this regime in spring was 2011.

Widespread drought will expand in the Southwest, Plains & Deep South.

It should dry out in May with early start to summer heat.

Strong signals of heat & drought continue for summer.

That has been my theme for the past 1-2 years for summer 2021 after 2020 having the hottest summer since 1995 or 2012 (ended up hottest since 1995 mean temperature-wise).

I do think the viewing area will see its first 100s since 2012 with a couple of particular very intense heat waves like those in 1995, 1999 & 2012.

There is higher than normal risk of “Ring of Fire” Serial Derecho.

Note the rainfall anomaly patterns expected for June-July-August overall.

You can see the center of the dryness & likely heat over the Plains & that getting into our area.

However, note the “Ring of Fire” signature from Saskatchewan & North Dakota, Manitoba & Ontario to Wisconsin to Ohio.  That area acturally features signs of some above normal rainfall.

Even amidst drought pattern, if we can play our cards just right & get into that “Ring of Fire” at the right times critical for crops, we will turn out better than anticipated.

Also, the tropical are projected to be very active again.

If we can get a couple tropical systems here in say June, then maybe July & cap it all off with a couple “Ring of Fire” MCSs, we would fare ok.  Our rainfall would still be below normal perhaps, but we could really stave off a 2012 situation of really bad drought.

We will take the rain of a derecho, we just don’t want so much wind to blow corn down over thousands & thousands of acres & we don’t want a Super Derecho like Iowa had last year & like the Summer 1998 Super Derecho that led to winds of up to 135 mph in Wisconsin & Michigan.

There is increasing potential that this will be a long-term drought with below normal rainfall lasting into next week.  Short-term conditions should improve, but long-term, drought may linger well into 2022.

This is largely due to a double-dip La Nina like those seen in 1998-99, 1999-2000 & 2010-11, 2011-12. 

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