May 17, 12 PM Weather Forecast Update

After lows of 56-62 this morning, temperatures as of 12 p.m. are running 60-66.

Rainfall totals since lastnight vary from a trace in the far north & northeast to as much as 1″ in the far southwest.

Totals from reporting Tippecanoe County gauges vary from 0.35-0.62″.  In Benton County, 0.20″ in the northwest to 0.45″ in the southeast part of the county.  In Carroll County, they vary from 0.33-0.64″.

Another band of rain over the area continues to work north & northeastward.

After this band of rain moves northward, some lulling will occur, followed by additional rain & even a few storms this evening, lasting into tonight.

Highs today should run 65-74.

This rainfall should last to Tuesday morning with lows tonight of 58-64 with a southeast wind.

Scattered showers & a few storms will bubble up Tuesday midday to afternoon with south-southeast to southeast winds & highs 69-75 (with mostly cloudy skies).  Dew points will run in the humid 64-70 range.

Some scattered showers & a few storms may linger into Wednesday morning with lows 61-67.

It should become very isolated by midday & afternoon, while severe storms blow up from Missouri to Iowa & northwestern Illinois.

Locally-heavy rainfall is possible now through Wednesday morning.

Total rainfall Sunday night (lastnight) to Wednesday should run 1-4″.  A couple isolated +4″ amonts are possible.

We should see some sunshine with highs 80-86 & southerly winds.

Dew points will run 67-72, making it muggy with heat indices 83-91.

Given the summery weather arriving, Periodical Cicada emergence should really ramp up!

Thursday-Sunday looks windy, hot & muggy with highs 87-92 & lows 67-72.

Daily heat indices will tend to run 91-99.

A couple of storms are possible at times, otherwise it is just dry with cumulus clouds every day & an early onset of summer.

Heavy storms with flooding rains & severe weather will occur in the Plains from Texas to Manitoba.

The eastern half of the U.S. will be abnormally hot with widespread 90s.  100 may be reached in Georgia, South Carolina & North Carolina.

Bursts of record heat are possible from eastern Ontario to the Northeast U.S.

Part of the Southeast will not see a drop of rain over the next two weeks with the intense heat taking hold.

Squall line with severe weather risk looks to pass here next Monday or Tuesday evening here.

The main upper jet streak is shifting a bit north of the area, but convergence ahead of the front & unidirectional shear of still decent wind fields suggest SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK parameters here.

After that, we get relief from the heat & humidity with much lower humidity & 70s. before big Rockies system moves into the Plains & we heat up again (88-93 with heat indices 93-100).

Also, severe weather will break out in the Plains.

It looks like it could be some big Plains outbreaks around May 30.

Severe weather risk may shift toward our area by June 1.

Briefly comfortable, cooler weather should result, followed by another big heat-up.

Massive hot upper ridge dominates in a chunk of early to mid-June with 5,000′ temperatures soaring to as high as 20C here.

Not the little shortwave that pivots to our northeast around June 11.

Given the heat & boiling instability here, that could bring a round of “Ring of Fire” storms.

Otherwise, the hot upper ridge will tend to cap things quite a bit with temperatures to the 90s to 100 & heat indices +100.

Shortwave & cold front should pass around June 16 with severe weather risk.

Brief relief should be followed by resumption of intense upper ridging & heat in late June.

Storms & storm complexes will flirt with us & make it in here at times, but overall rainfall trend is below normal (unless we park storms here or get more complexes & clusters to make it in here).

No doubt, there will be extremely dry areas & areas that made it through great with more than ample rainfall given the convective, & frequent hap-hazard nature of summer rainfall in such a pattern.

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